Geopolitics expert Gabriel Elefteriou sees solid evidence of a far-reaching turning point in the Ukraine war. Now there is a war of position on the battlefield in which the defender – Ukraine – theoretically has an advantage. Given “Russian superiority in manpower and weapons”, “the long-term result can only be a gradual attenuation of Ukrainian military power, even if the current level of Western military assistance remains the same.”
Eleftheriou is deputy director of the British think tank Council on Geostrategy in London and a fellow at the Yorktown Institute in Washington DC. He wrote his views in an extensive column for the Brussels Signal.
A “bombshell” was a surprisingly honest interview by General Valery Zalashny, Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, in the Economist in early November. There Salushny admitted for the first time: We are in a long war in which Russia has the advantage in terms of manpower. Furthermore, the country receives little equipment and weapons from the West. In an essay the general also said that Russia “will have superiority in weapons, equipment, missiles and ammunition for a long time.” Furthermore, “Russia’s defense industry is increasing its production despite unprecedented sanctions.”
The statements apparently were not agreed with President Volodymyr Zelensky, who refuted the statements a short time later. Gabriel Eleftheriu sees this as a reference to the “power struggle in Kyiv”. Other factors speaking against Ukraine are: declining support for Zelensky in the United States and the still-intact and growing economy in Russia. “None of this should have happened, and it means that not only can Russia continue the war indefinitely, but perhaps even succeed in it. This fact alone overturns some of the basic assumptions underlying Western strategic thinking in the context of the Ukraine war.
Particularly pernicious: in the West, “political decision-makers do not seem to be aware of the significant implications.” The fault of this “attitude of denigration”, which wants “the problem to resolve itself or simply disappear”, is the inertia of “incredibly powerful Western propaganda, which has been producing optimistic interpretations of the situation in Ukraine for 20 months”. Used to be. “
In his column, Eleftheriou called for a rethink: “Especially the unprecedented interview of Saloushanis should make everyone – especially the Western public and opinion – come to terms with the full extent of the challenge facing us all.” “There is no substitute for clarity and realism, especially in a time of war – or pre-war, which is our position. Feel-good narratives can have psychological benefits at critical moments, but not when they remind us of the dangers ahead. They can be counterproductive if they prevent real limits from being recognized.