With some strong statements and sharp criticism of the West, army expert Colonel Markus Reiser in his latest interview made people alarmed and take notice. When asked whether the West is ready for the beginning of a trench war in Ukraine, the military historian explains: “The West is not ready for this because the West has been covering up the situation for 20 months.”
European politicians may believe that Ukraine will “defeat the Russian bear” simply because of its morality. But it doesn’t work that way, as Reisner stressed to Deutsche Welle (DW): “This goes against all military logic.” According to the military expert, there are now only two options: “One is to proceed completely. But four to five loaded military trains will have to travel to Ukraine every week. The second is to self-critically accept that this Impossible.”
But the West is clearly shying away from option two: “Then you have to tell the Ukrainians this. Then you may have to start negotiations, but with the acceptance that Ukraine will no longer exist as a state because Russia will destroy it.
Which of the two paths will be adopted will probably be decided next year. We are moving towards a “tipping point”, where “the situation is on the brink and a decision will be taken – in one direction or the other.” Reisner is skeptical because attention is increasingly turning to other crises. “If Ukraine does not manage to remain in the world spotlight and, above all, make it clear to the European side that the war for Europe can be decided in Ukraine, things will become difficult for Ukraine.”
In principle, Markus Reisner agreed with Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Valery Zalushnij. He spoke of a stalemate in the British Economist because there was now a threat of trench warfare like the First World War. In fact, Kiev gets very little for a successful offensive against Russia: “Zaluzny says that for 20 months Ukraine has received only what makes it possible for it to balance an asymmetric situation. But not so much that the Russians are forced into such a corner that they are forced to engage in negotiations.” Saluschnij told Western allies: ”If you want us to win, the difference here is compared to before. It should be.”
One problem: “Ukraine was always good when it was mobile. Russia has repeatedly managed to force Ukraine into a stagnant war.” The offensive that began on June 4 was supposed to break this dilemma – “but it has not achieved its stated goals. By doing so, the Russians have forced the Ukrainians deeper into the war.
Now there are signs of planning a new attack in the spring. But this would require the Ukrainians to supply “150 battle tanks, 300 infantry fighting vehicles, at least 200 to 300 artillery systems” and “those have yet to be delivered.”
At present there is a kind of deadlock. Both sides now use sophisticated weapon systems, including swarms of drones. This means that it is no longer possible to deploy a large number of tanks in a small space because the enemy knows immediately: “They are coming and you have to render it ineffective with artillery and drones.” Ukraine could do this “by mastering the electromagnetic field”. area, where transmitting and controlling drones are carried out”, thereby “blinding the enemy again”. “If Ukraine succeeds in innovatively reclaiming the electromagnetic field and working with the time factor “, then he will be able to get momentum on his side.”