How long will the war in Ukraine last? According to military experts at a Chinese think tank, the end is in sight as early as this summer. But under what circumstances and under what conditions?
When the Chinese leadership unveiled a 12-point plan for resolving the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on January 24, the one-year anniversary of the war in Ukraine, they likely referred to the findings of a think tank directly linked to the is subordinate to the People’s Liberation Army. This think tank, the “Academy of Military Sciences” (AMS), is considered elite and leading, with many senior military experts in its ranks.
As reported by Nikkei Asia, this think tank provides recommendations and analysis to the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Military Commission. These are regarded as groundbreaking for Beijing’s political measures. The report states:
In December, the AMS conducted a simulation of the Ukraine conflict, which, according to pro-government sources, came to an astonishing conclusion. According to the simulation, the war will end in the summer of 2023, with Russia having the upper hand. Both the Russian and Ukrainian economies would be too exhausted to continue the war beyond the summer, the report said.
Even if “Nikkei Asia” assumes that this report may have been interpreted much more positively for Russia, the attempt to draw an overall picture of the situation is evident. The article also notes that the $45 billion US aid package passed last December is also expiring this summer, supporting Chinese assumptions.
Although the Pentagon assumes that the war will last for years (which Ukraine will eventually win), the facts speak against it. Because Ukraine is running out of soldiers and deliveries of weapons and ammunition from abroad are also faltering. Meanwhile, Russia has massively increased the production of arms and ammunition, so there are fewer problems to be expected there.
As long as Kiev (with the participation of Washington and London) continues to insist on the maximum demands, although the situation is gradually deteriorating, there will hardly be any negotiations. Rather, it seems, the Ukrainian troops will capitulate and Kiev will make significantly more extensive concessions to Moscow.
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