The Austrian population is also getting older. According to the latest figures from Statistics Austria, the number of people in work is stagnating. The ratio of people of working age to those of retirement age will change in the future. This also increases the pressure on pension systems and could exacerbate the shortage of skilled workers.
“The labor force is stagnating despite the growing population,” said Statistics Austria Director General Tobias Thomas at an online press conference on Wednesday. The labor force includes not only employed people but also the unemployed. According to the statistician, after an increase in the number of people in work in recent years, a sideways movement in the trend can be expected in the future. In 2021 there were 4.59 million people in employment in Austria, by 2024 the proportion is expected to increase slightly to 4.62 million and in 2080 to 4.98 million.
According to Thomas, the fact that this number is stagnating is mainly due to the increasing aging of the population. The average life expectancy for men is currently 78.9 years. It has increased by 16.5 years since 1951, and by 2080 men are expected to be another ten years older. With an average of 83.7 years, women have become 16 years older since 1951, and by 2080 they are expected to be 92 years old. Meanwhile, the proportion of people of working age is falling. Currently, the working-age population (20-64 years) accounts for almost 61 percent of the total population. “This proportion will decrease significantly by 2080, to 53.3 percent, a decrease of minus 7.6 percentage points,” said Thomas.
Accordingly, demographic change also has a strong impact on the labor market. With the exception of the year of the corona crisis, the number of vacancies (according to calculations by the AMS and Statistics Austria) has been increasing almost continuously in recent years. “This is a clear sign of the worsening shortage of skilled workers and it also has to do with demographic developments,” says the statistician.
Against this background, according to Thomas, pay-as-you-go security systems, such as pensions, would come under increasing pressure. There are currently about three people of working age for every person aged 65 and over in Austria. According to forecasts, this ratio will change to one to two from 2040. According to Thomas, since 1995 the financing needs of the pension insurance companies have increased almost continuously, as has the federal government grants for pensions. In 1995, federal subsidies amounted to 3.7 billion euros and accounted for almost 2.6 percent of gross domestic product. In 2020 they were already at 11 billion euros and accounted for around 2.98 percent of gross domestic product. “This development continues,” says Thomas. “We see that the labor force participation of older people is falling significantly even before the statutory retirement age,” he explained.
There is still room for improvement in the number of women in employment in Austria, despite a strong increase in recent years. “What we have been observing for years and decades is a very strong increase in part-time employment rates, with almost 15 percent of women between the ages of 50 and 64 only working part-time,” says Fuchs.
