The Kremlin boss has already attracted the attention of the world. When Putin speaks to his compatriots in Moscow’s Red Square on May 9, they will not be the only ones to listen. Everyone is wondering what to expect. Initially, it was said that before May 9, Putin would intensify the attack on Ukraine in order to announce a victory against Ukraine before the military parade – which he had still not achieved the day before. In the meantime, the fear is growing that the victory celebration will become the day of the new escalation.
A closer look reveals three possible scenarios. This is also indicated by Putin’s own decisions in the past few days. The three options are not necessarily mutually exclusive. Possibly two or all three will occur.
Putin is already celebrating one victory after another on Russian TV. In this respect, he doesn’t need to do much more to keep his citizens on track – and thus in a good mood. Even without great success on the battlefield, he uses images of war and interprets them in his own way. Russian propaganda is thoroughly experienced in this.
In order to be able to show a few notable successes, he could officially annex the separatist areas of Luhansk and Donetsk in the Donbass. Russia is already busy covering all traces of Ukraine there. In addition, the Kremlin already recognized the separatist regions a few days before the invasion began. An annexation could certainly be sold as a success.
There are also increasing indications of a victory parade in the almost completely destroyed port city of Mariupol. The deputy head of Moscow’s presidential administration, Sergei Kiriyenko, is said to have already arrived there to prepare for the celebrations, Ukrainian military intelligence reports. Mariupol could even become a center of May 9 “celebrations”. The city’s central streets are already said to be “cleared of debris, bodies and unexploded ordnance.” Women and children in the steel mill there have already been evacuated. “The Russians should be shown stories about the locals’ ‘joy’ at meeting the occupiers,” says the intelligence service.
An expansion of the military goals would also be conceivable. This is exactly what the Republic of Moldova fears. In April, Russian Major General Rustam Minnekayev openly named Transnistria as the next target. At an event, he specified the operational goals of the second military phase. Accordingly, in addition to the Donbass and a land connection to Crimea, access to Transnistria is also being sought.
But Putin could also attack targets further west, not with a military attack, but with attacks. Since Putin has not yet achieved his ultimate goal — the destruction of Ukraine — he is likely to blame the West. In fact, since the beginning of the Ukraine war – that is, since 2014 – he has taken the position that he should not only fight against Ukrainian units in the large neighboring country, but also against subversive machinations by the USA, Europe and NATO.
The writer Viktor Eroyefev, who fled Russia, even expects the use of nuclear weapons in the Baltic Sea on May 9th, right “next to Germany”, as he emphasizes to the “Welt”. But even without using nuclear weapons, he could threaten them on May 9th to intimidate Europe and the USA. It is highly likely that he will issue new warnings to the West in his speech. Among the 77 planes taking part in an air show over Red Square is said to be the so-called “doomsday plane,” a custom design of the Ilyushin II-80 from which Russia’s president can rule his country from the air in the event of a nuclear war . That would be a clear signal
There is currently no evidence that Russia will use nuclear weapons – including tactical ones with a shorter range. But what all secret services agree on is that Putin still believes in victory in Ukraine if he intensifies his efforts.
Even if the Kremlin has so far denied this, Russia’s president could announce general mobilization and declare war. Because there would no longer be official talk of a military operation. The Ukrainian and British secret services are now assuming this. CIA chief Bill Burns also expects Putin to redouble his efforts in the Ukraine war rather than withdraw. “He has placed so much on the decision to launch this invasion that at the moment he feels confident that doubling the funds can still make progress,” Burns said at a Financial Times event. Western military officers are also observing other indications of general preparations for war in Russia.
This variant is highly dangerous: What should the NATO countries do? Entering a war with Russia and risking a chain reaction – see WWI?
