Colonel Markus Reisner is an expert of the Austrian Armed Forces. He assesses the situation in Ukraine as extremely dangerous. The crucial question will be how far the Russian troops will advance. In the worst-case scenario, Russia could take half the country, so Reisnerhead of the research and development department of the Theresian Military Academy in Wiener Neustadt.
Even the threat of a nuclear strike was put on the table by Russian President Vladimir Putin. Such a scenario is currently not likely, but cannot be completely ruled out if, for example, NATO countries intervene militarily in the conflict Reisner.
Asked about Putin’s goals, named Reisner first of all “being taken seriously in the world”. “Putin has already achieved that.” During the tenure of US President Barack Obama, the Americans denied the international importance of the Russians. Putin has now brought that back. The second goal is to push back NATO and conquer territory. The big question here is how far Russian troops will go: the areas already controlled by Russian separatists are noisy Reisner about as big as the area between Vienna and Graz. If Russia gets the entire Luhansk and Donetsk regions, it will be as large as the area between Klagenfurt and Brno (Brünn).
In his speech, Putin denied Ukraine’s status as a state. The are strong announcements, “he feels in a superior role”, analyzed Reisner. One possible scenario is that half of Ukraine is occupied by Russia. If Ukraine resists, given Russia’s military strength, there will be “sustained losses on the Ukrainian side.” Putin probably also wants to show the world how strong Russia is. Europe has little to oppose this military might. “That has been lost in Europe. We can only respond with economic sanctions,” Putin said, but to a certain extent, that doesn’t matter Reisner.
The experts at the military academy have dealt very intensively with modern warfare and have analyzed the situation in Ukraine in detail since 2014, he said Reisner. He described four options for action – so-called courses of action, along which the conflict develops. A distinction should be made here between regional and national events Reisner. The first part has already happened with the deployment of troops around Ukraine. In the second part, the separatist areas are recognized by Russia. “The invasion of Russian troops will be non-combat because the areas are controlled by separatists.”
Part 3 is about taking over the two oblasts of Luhansk and Donetsk in their entirety. If that happens, it would be a violation of the Minsk ceasefire agreement, he said Reisner. The fourth course of action includes the advance (full invasion) to the river Dnipro and a division of the country through the middle.
Columns of vehicles and military equipment had already marched in on Tuesday morning. Below are loud Reisner classic tanks, artillery, systems for self-defence such as anti-aircraft defense and radar, reconnaissance systems and cyber devices.
