According to initial estimates, the two winter storms “Zeynep” and “Ylenia” are likely to cost insurers 1.4 billion euros. “Zeynep” alone caused insured losses of over 900 million euros, said the management consultancy Meyerthole Siems Kohlruss (MSK), which specializes in actuarial mathematics, on Saturday in Cologne.
“Zeynep” was the most intense storm since “Kyrill” in 2007. “For Germany, we are assuming insured losses of over 900 million euros,” said MSK Managing Director Onnen Siems. The company had previously estimated the insured damage from the previous storm “Ylenia” at 500 million euros. Insured damage is only damage that is ultimately covered by an insurer. The total damage caused by storms is usually higher, sometimes quite significantly.
In contrast to “Kyrill”, “Zeynep” hardly hit the southern half of Germany. South of a line from Saarbrücken to Nuremberg, the effects are minor, as the management consultancy said. “Kyrill” had caused much higher insured losses, in today’s values it was over three billion euros, according to MSK.
The estimates by Meyerthole Siems Kohlruss are not based on damage reports from insurance customers, but on the calculations of a forecast model called “Storm Chaser”. MSK operates numerous data pools, which the management consultancy uses to evaluate existing damage data and create forecasts. The basis is the statistics of the participating insurance companies.