Do parts of the Ukrainian military really want to provoke an invasion of their country by the Russian army? Apparently, some forces are interested in escalating the conflict in Donbass. But how will President Putin react?
As soon as Moscow announces the gradual withdrawal of troops from the border region with Ukraine (and thus initiated steps to de-escalate the crisis), the Ukrainian military launches a new offensive against the breakaway areas in the Donbass region – the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics. They split off in the aftermath of the Maidan putsch, which was supported by Washington and Brussels, after right-wing extremist forces (some of whom called for genocide against the country’s Russian-speaking population) to take power. Since then there has been a civil war that has already claimed thousands of lives. After a few quieter phases, however, a new escalation of the fighting seems to have flared up again.
Denis Puschilin, the leader of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic, announced that women, children and the elderly will join the line of contact with Russia to be evacuated. The risk of the conflict escalating is too great, since President Zelensky has already ordered the invasion of Donbass. You also already have an agreement with the Russian region of Rostov, according to which you can evacuate civilians there. According to the Russian state news agency TASS the first evacuees have already arrived in Rostov.
Gas pipeline exploded
During the night, a huge explosion was reported in a gas line, where a fire raged. According to initial unconfirmed reports, the massive explosion shook part of the pipeline in the pro-Russian separatist region in or near the city of Luhansk. Russian media confirmed a “pipeline fire in eastern Ukraine after a powerful explosion”… Dramatic videos quickly emerged showing a bright fireball on the horizon.
one Message According to Sputnik, around 40 shells were fired at the city of Dokuchaevsk in the Luhansk region. One of them could have caused the damage to the gas pipeline. in one further report Photographic material from the region was published.
Washington blames Moscow
Neocon Republican Senator Marco Rubio immediately pointed the finger at Russia for sabotage and hinted that Washington could have its “false flag” moment to pin on Moscow. But of course, the Ukrainian troops (freshly equipped with new weapons) launch a new wave of attacks and then it is said that the Russians destroyed the critical infrastructure in the Donbass. What for? Cui Bono? Above all, an escalation of the conflict is not remotely in Moscow’s geopolitical interests.
Shortly after images of the gas pipeline explosion surfaced on social media, President Biden stepped behind the lectern at the White House (an hour late) to the world to sharethat he was “convinced” that Russian President Vladimir Putin had decided to launch another invasion of Ukraine, including an attack on the capital, Kiev. After weeks of the US saying it was unsure whether Putin had made the final decision to launch a full-scale invasion, Biden said that assessment had changed, citing “significant intelligence capabilities.”
“From that moment on, I am convinced that he made the decision,” Biden said in reference to Putin. “We have reason to believe that.” He reiterated that this could happen in the “coming days.” “We believe they will attack the Ukrainian capital of Kiev, a city of 2.8 million innocent people,” he said of Russian forces. With US Secretary of State Antony Blinken scheduled to meet Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov for Thursday, Biden said there was still time for negotiations to defuse the crisis. “Diplomacy is always an option,” he said.
How will Moscow react?
the recent statements by President Vladimir Putin indicate that Moscow will not stand idly by should the Donbass conflict escalate further. “Sanctions will be imposed in any case. Whether they have a reason today, for example in connection with the events in Ukraine, or whether there is no such reason – you will find it, because the goal is different, in this case the goal is the development of Russia and Belarus to slow down,” said the Russian President at a press conference following talks with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. “With this goal, there will always be a reason to introduce certain unlawful restrictions, and that is nothing but unfair competition,” added the Russian leader. He stressed that the sanctions pressure was “absolutely illegitimate”. “This is a gross violation of international law, but those who are talking about it now only care when it is to their advantage. If it is not beneficial for them, they like to forget all the norms of international public law,” Putin said.
This indicates a certain resignation regarding the talks with Washington, London and Brussels. VAbove all, however, more overt military support for Donbass militias could be an option for Moscow to consider. Not quite as escalating as a direct deployment of troops and military equipment, but still a clear sign. True to the motto: If the West equips the Ukrainian military with new weapons and these are then used for a Donbass offensive, we will also compensate for this by supplying weapons to the militias so that a massacre with tens of thousands of dead does not take place there in a few weeks. After all, units of the “Asow-Battalions“ with whose ranks are interspersed with neo-Nazis and also with war crimes to be linked.
However, according to the Russian constitution, the Russian government is obliged to help the Russians living abroad (a great Soviet legacy). So also the ethnic Russians in Ukraine. This is a factor that tends to be forgotten in relation to the Ukraine crisis. But that also means that Moscow cannot stand by and watch when nationalist Ukrainian militias want to carry out genocide against ethnic Russians in the east of the country. In any case, we will see a Russian reaction if fighting in Donbass escalates and a bloodbath among civilians is expected. And as Putin said: sanctions will come one way or the other, so why just wait and do nothing?
