The currently available statistical data for the Philippines shows frightening numbers. While the birth rate fell dramatically in the lockdown years 2020/2021, deaths exploded last year. And this at the same time as the start of the vaccination programs.
A Filipina now based in Australia, Tanya Karina A. Lat, a lawyer and faculty member at Ateneo de Manila University, has analyzed the Southeast Asian country’s population data. The aim was to evaluate the effects of the lockdowns and vaccination programs. Especially in terms of demographics. What the data shows so far is devastating and almost looks like genocide. The figures she compiled on the basis of the official data up to September 2021 (more recent are not available) should actually shake up every normal-thinking person. Lat also presented these findings to the Philippine CDC (the country’s health agency) in a Zoom meeting. This is available as a video on Facebook (English language). You can see the presentation itself (also in English) as PDF view or download here.
Death and birth rates relatively stable until 2019
The following figures relating to long-term death and birth dates are essential for the evaluation of the years 2020 and 2021. They show what is common in “normal” years. On page 4 of presentation Lat shows the annual death rates in the Philippines. From 2010 to 2018 there were changes of -0.5 to +4.4 percent on an annual basis. In 2019, however, there was already a 5 percent increase. However, it is statistically completely normal that especially in countries with a high birth rate (i.e. a real “population pyramid”), the number of deaths also increases as larger population groups move up into old age. An increase of 5.0 percent after two rather “weak” years (in terms of the percentage increase) should therefore still be within the normal range. In addition, Covid-19 was already spreading unnoticed in the country at the end of the year and – similar to flu waves in Europe or North America – was already taking its toll.
Births (page 5 of the presentation) tend to show a slight decrease in the numbers. The rural exodus and the increasingly better level of education are making themselves felt. Sex education classes and the lack of face-to-face classes also ensure that there are fewer teenage pregnancies. The fluctuation range from 2010 to 2019 is -2.0 to +2.5 percent. However, the tough lockdown policy, including skyrocketing unemployment, especially in the lockdown year 2020 (from March 16) ensured that many people in the Philippines made a conscious decision not to become pregnant. The poorer sections of the population, who mainly live off day labour, were hit particularly hard by the strict curfew. The lack of tourism also resulted in fewer (unwanted) children, especially in the tourist areas.
The comparison of 2019, 2020 and 2021
Given that 2019 was the last “normal” year, it is a good point of comparison for the developments that follow. When it comes to births, it must be taken into account that the effect of the lockdowns is felt with a delay due to the length of the pregnancy. There were priority lists for the vaccination campaigns. First, from March 1, 2021, given the limited resources, the so-called “frontliners” (especially the health workers) were supplied with the experimental Covid vaccines, as well as the elderly over 60 and people with comorbidities. Teachers, social workers, government employees, “essential” workers and the like followed from the third quarter. From the fourth quarter then the rest of the population. Meanwhile also minors from 12 years.
The graphic on page 10 then shows the development of the birth rate. While an average of 4,586 children were born per day in 2019, in 2020 it was only 4,177. A minus of 9.2 percent. In 2021 it was only 3,343 per day. An incredible minus of 20 percent compared to the already weak year 2020. In view of the trend, one can assume that the decline in the birth rate will be even more pronounced in 2021 as a whole.
The figures for deaths are even more dramatic. As the graphic on page 11 impressively shows, there were actually no major differences between 2019 (i.e. “normal”) and the “pandemic year” 2020. While an average of 1,700 people died per day in 2019, it was 1,682 in 2020 – a drop of 1.1 percent. That means: Despite the “deadly virus” (the lockdowns brought hardly anything anyway, given the often cramped living conditions, especially for the majority of the poor), there was even a lower mortality rate in the Philippines.
But then, in 2021, something changed: deaths exploded. And from when? From April, when the vaccination campaign gained momentum – and even more so from July, when the general population began to be vaccinated. From January 2021 to September of the year, the number of average deaths per day was 2,378. This is an unbelievable increase of 41 percent. In September 2021, it even rose to an incredible 3,444 per day! That’s a double! This means: In September 2021, for the first time, more people died per day in the Philippines than were born. That has probably not been the case since World War II.
Regional differences: Earlier start of vaccination – faster increase in the number of deaths
The following pages show the regional differences. Especially with regard to deaths, it is also clearly evident that, for example, the cities in the capital region (NCR, National Capital Region) already had a significant excess mortality in the first half of 2021 (the vaccination campaigns started there first). And there, too, it increased with the broad wave of vaccinations from July. This is different in the provinces (e.g. in Cebu, Negros Oriental, Iloilo or Davao), where the vaccination campaigns started later due to a lack of vaccines. In Lanao del Sur (with a very low vaccination coverage) there were initially more deaths (possibly especially among the “frontliners” and the seniors who were vaccinated first?), but then in August it even fell below the previous year’s value.
Is there a connection with the experimental vaccines?
According to Lat, who describes herself as a passionate statistician, there appears to be a causal link between death rates and the experimental vaccines. She explains this using public figures. She concludes that there are 0.0041 “excess deaths” per administered dose of this controversial vaccine. To put it simply: there is a correlation of one “excess death” per 250 doses of vaccine administered. Since there are not (see page 34) as many “Covid deaths” as the excess mortality suggests, it must be due to something that has changed in 2021 compared to previous years. And what is that? The mass vaccinations.
