How likely do you think it will be that a blackout will come this winter?
“Nobody has a crystal ball, including me. But due to various negative framework conditions, the risk is probably never as high as in the coming winter. This has to do with the shutdown of a large number of nuclear and coal-fired power plants in Germany by the end of the year. On the other hand, the gas storage tanks are more poorly filled than they have been for a long time. But gas-fired power plants are needed precisely for this gap. Because exactly as much has to be generated in the power supply system as is currently being used. If there is a cold spell, especially in south-western Europe, i.e. on the Iberian Peninsula and in France, things could get pretty tricky.
But in principle it is not about a prediction, but that we as a society would not be prepared for such an event at all. Because it is not about the power failure, but about the widespread power failure that it triggers in all areas of life. “
Can the corona situation accelerate such a scenario, for example because electricity consumption increases after people spend more time at home?
“For this, less is used in the factories. Not really from this point of view and such massive differences are not to be expected. It would be worse if many people fell ill at the same time and the supply logistics fell apart. The very rapid spread of the new Omikron variant could lead to a massive epidemic and / or quarantine wave. This could interrupt supply chains and lead to serious supply bottlenecks, including the failure of important facilities. “
What role do renewable energies play in the event of an impending collapse in the electricity system?
“An indirect one. The problem is not renewables, but inadequate regulation, which, especially in Germany, only encourages the expansion of generation systems, but not the storage systems necessary to maintain the permanent balance. Due to the power plant shutdowns, fewer and fewer other systems are available to compensate for the fluctuating production from wind and sun. And you can usually not just switch it on at the push of a button when you need it again at short notice. It is not just about a few house storage systems, but dimensions that cannot be achieved with today’s technical and financial possibilities. “
In the event of a blackout, several European countries would be affected at the same time – it could be less severe in Austria than in Germany, why?
“I agree! The Austrian e-industry is well prepared and we have an enormous advantage over Germany thanks to our hydropower. We have at least a theoretical storage capacity of 3,300 GWh. In the whole of Germany, only around 40 GWh of pumped storage capacity is available. It is therefore to be expected that in the event of a Europe-wide power, infrastructure and supply failure (“blackout”), the power supply in Austria should work halfway again after around a day. In parts also earlier. But until the rest of the system works again, around a week is expected. Also for Germany. As a result, almost no production and logistics, i.e. goods distribution, work until production is possible everywhere again. And this doesn’t work either when the power is back on. Only when the telecommunications supply, i.e. cell phone, landline network and internet are working again several days after the power failure, can it be started again. “
The Austrian government went public with the topic on a massive scale. How do you observe the enlightenment in other countries? In Germany – at least that’s the impression – the topic is only communicated cautiously.
“We are certainly pioneers in Austria when it comes to risk communication and activities at different levels. But I miss the clear and indispensable integration of personal provision in the population. Because nobody can help millions of people if nothing works anymore. That’s why I’m sometimes a bit overly critical. But I’ve been dealing with this topic for 10 years and I see day in and day out what the reality really looks like in the various organizations and companies. And those are still those who have already started. In many others it is not even an issue. And from a systemic point of view, you can only understand the detail if you know the whole thing and not the other way around. “
The bestseller “Blackout” is now available as a series on the “joyn” streaming portal. Did you watch the series by any chance? How realistic is a blackout there from your point of view?
“No, but I know the book and Marc Elsberg very well and we always exchange ideas. The book is very realistic, apart from the accompanying story. And from what I’ve heard, the series is said to have been done well. “
The series also addresses the fact that the cooling of nuclear reactors becomes problematic after a lengthy blackout – is that a realistic scenario?
Unfortunately yes. In principle, nuclear power plants are protected several times with emergency power facilities. But the risk of an incident certainly increases in such a case.
