Ten days after the entry into force of the 2G regulation, which allows access to restaurants, concerts, sports events or the hairdresser only to those who have been vaccinated or recovered, there is no adequate braking effect on the epidemiological events in the fourth coronavirus, especially in the most severely affected federal states. Shaft occupied. This conclusion allows the update of the Covid forecast consortium created on Wednesday.
“In the last few days, a reduction in the growth rate of new infections every day has been observed at a high level, which can possibly be attributed to the booster vaccinations carried out and the stricter access regimes in the service sector. However, the braking potential of these measures is currently insufficient to bring about a sustained reduction in incidences in the short term, ”says the forecast. It must therefore be feared in all federal states that the intensive care capacities (ICU) for Covid 19 patients will no longer be sufficient in the near future.
Specifically, the probability that the system-critical utilization limit of 33 percent in the ICU area will be exceeded in two weeks is 97.5 percent in Upper Austria – and has thus increased by a further 2.5 percentage points compared to the previous week. In Salzburg and Vorarlberg it is 84 percent – an increase of 19 percent each compared to last week’s assessment. According to the Covid forecasting consortium, it now also looks alarming in Tyrol, where there is an 80 percent probability that the 33 percent capacity limit will no longer be sufficient on December 1st. In relation to the whole of Austria, the probability is 65 percent and is therefore the same as last Wednesday – not necessarily an indication that the 2G rule is effective.
By far the best in this regard are Vienna and Burgenland, where there is a 15 percent probability that the ICU capacities are no longer sufficient for people with severe Covid-19 disease. In Carinthia it is 30 percent, in Styria 35 percent and in Lower Austria 65 percent.
With regard to the coverage prognosis in the hospitals, the experts state: “Due to the time delay with which incident cases require medical treatment in hospitals, further severe courses are to be expected in the hospitals even if the dynamics of the case activity should decrease.” A predicted increase in cases therefore subsequently means “predicted increases in bed occupancy”. (APA / red)