The relationship dispute could reach its climax at the upcoming committee of inquiry. “Could” because it will be about the intra-party takeover of power by the “turquoise ÖVP”. An additional means of pressure from the Greens in conjunction with the opposition, so that the “black ÖVP” and the “turquoise new ÖVP” grow apart. For many outside the People’s Party, this will only be marginally relevant; for their own partisans it is an ordeal that should not be underestimated. The inner-party dealings with the ÖVP had been a topic of its own for decades, about which a malicious word was read in the media from time to time. Now there are chats about it and will be documented by messages in the upcoming committee of inquiry, legible for all. And cause a lot of controversy between the two structures – turquoise and black.
In the chats known so far, dealing with the Catholic Church has hit a core issue within the party. More than any other communication that has been widely discussed in public. The leader of the SPÖ parliamentary group, Kai Jan Krainer, has recognized this. Whenever there is a media opportunity, he recalls these church chats. Of course, Krainer will not miss the chance to strike the previously only delicately set wedge between turquoise and black ever deeper. How this inner-party struggle will ultimately end is still open. But it is clear that in the end the governors always win. If black and turquoise stand out, that will do the coalition good. If not, then we are experiencing an ongoing dispute within the government.
The Greens are currently on a good run and are doing a lot of tactical things right. Their skills in this regard were massively underestimated by their government partner. With people like Stefan Wallner they have excellent strategists in their ranks. Wallner once worked in a future-oriented manner as federal managing director, doing a lot of things right strategically and technically. It is also noticeable that the Greens are increasingly statesmanlike acting in a balancing act in their speeches.
Even Sigrid Maurer has grown very well into her certainly extremely challenging role. All of these developments at the Greens will, when the subject of “Sebastian Kurz” is dealt with for them, lead to stronger competition between green, pink and red again in the future. Because we must not forget that all three ultimately fish for votes in a large shared pond. It is particularly interesting here that the Neos are currently making a gentle change in position, presumably in order to be able to convert the weakness of the ÖVP into votes. Nikolaus Scherak step up with Beate Meinl-Reisinger in the foreground. In connection with the always hard-working, constructively arguable Gerald Loacker This triumvirate positions itself increasingly as an offer to middle-class voters while Stefanie Krisper successfully fishing in the green pond.
But back to the working relationship in the turquoise-green government. At the end of this game of vagueness it will probably be that the Greens with the turquoises have happily climbed into the coalition bed, but are now most likely enjoying their morning coffee with the Blacks. But it could also turn out differently.
Norbert Hofer is generally considered neither a seer nor a futurologist. But let’s remember his prognosis. I do not mean “You will still be amazed what is possible”, but his prediction made at the end of March 2021 that the election will take place at the beginning of 2022. However, with him as the top candidate. Should the latter happen, then we can definitely venerate him as a prophet. At least the new elections are an option that is still pending.
The turquoise-green government months did not have a honeymoon. Right from the start, the coalition offered the image of an arranged wedding. One hardly knew the other. When the veil was lifted after the coalition “Yes, we want”, they both looked deeply into each other’s eyes for the very first time and each thought to himself “This is actually not my type.” The following months went just like that. After the initial enthusiasm, everyday life found its way into the turquoise-green government bed. Soon there was nothing left to do there. Every little legal discussion turned into a show of strength. In the run-up to the chats, a turquoise-green relationship drama took place on the open stage in three acts.
The first act, “Peaceful Coexistence”, lasted until the end of the previous year. The second act, “The Divorce,” is currently underway. If the working relationship does not improve, the third act will follow, “The Divorce”. A committee of inquiry can be terminated by the dissolution of parliament. That means new elections. And one thing must not be forgotten: In the last Sunday question, the ÖVP lost a huge amount of approval. However, it remained in first place. That could motivate those who flirt with the idea of new elections. In view of elementary problems in sight, such as inflation, labor shortages or massive price increases, a month-long standstill is not a good idea. Hopefully it will be clear to everyone who is toying with new elections that this is a gamble at the expense of all of us.
